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Outcome of Israeli-Hezbollah conflict escalation by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from major news agencies or official statements from involved parties
Story
Israeli Airstrikes Target Hezbollah in Lebanon on January 12, 2025, Despite Ceasefire
Jan 13, 2025, 04:07 AM
The Israeli military conducted a series of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions in southern and eastern Lebanon on January 12, 2025, marking a significant escalation in the region. The strikes included attacks on the villages of Deir al-Zahrani and Houmine in the south, as well as the town of Arabsalim and the Bekaa Valley in the east. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reported that the targets included a rocket launcher, a military site, and smuggling routes along the Lebanon-Syria border used by Hezbollah for weapons trafficking. These actions were carried out despite a ceasefire agreement that had been in place since November 27, 2024, which Israel justified by stating that the targets posed threats to its security, and that ceasefire monitors had failed to address these threats adequately.
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Increased military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Stalemate with no resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation into war • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Hezbollah retreats beyond Litani River • 25%
Significant military confrontation occurs • 25%
Ceasefire is maintained without violations • 25%
Diplomatic resolution achieved • 25%
Limited skirmishes continue • 25%
Formal peace talks initiated • 25%
Full-scale conflict resumes • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no further incidents • 25%
Hezbollah strategic victory • 25%
Israeli strategic victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
UN calls for peace talks • 25%
No significant international action • 25%
UN imposes sanctions on Israel • 25%
UN imposes sanctions on Lebanon • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Partial compliance with ongoing tensions • 25%
Peaceful resolution with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire violated • 25%
New agreement • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Complete disarmament of Hezbollah • 25%
No significant disarmament • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Partial disarmament • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Temporary suspension • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Other outcome • 25%