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Market
Outcome of next significant military engagement between Israel and Hezbollah by May 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Israeli strategic victory • 25%
Hezbollah strategic victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Verified reports from international news agencies or official statements from the involved parties
Story
Israeli Drone Strike Targets Hezbollah Operatives in Tayr Debba, Lebanon, Killing Five
Jan 10, 2025, 03:49 PM
The Israeli military conducted a drone strike in southern Lebanon, targeting a vehicle in the town of Tayr Debba, near Tyre. The strike, which occurred despite a ceasefire agreement in place since late November, resulted in the deaths of at least five people and injured four others, according to the Lebanese health ministry. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) stated that the strike was aimed at eliminating a threat posed by Hezbollah operatives who were loading weapons onto a truck. The IDF emphasized that the operation was conducted in accordance with the ceasefire understandings between Israel and Lebanon, and they remain committed to removing any threat to the state of Israel and its citizens.
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Escalation into war • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Significant military confrontation occurs • 25%
Ceasefire is maintained without violations • 25%
Hezbollah retreats beyond Litani River • 25%
Diplomatic resolution achieved • 25%
Airstrikes • 25%
Naval blockade • 25%
Cyber attack • 25%
Ground incursion • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No significant disarmament • 25%
Partial disarmament • 25%
Complete disarmament of Hezbollah • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
UN condemnation • 25%
Increased tensions with Russia • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Hezbollah weakens • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%