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Market
Significant escalation in Israel-Hezbollah conflict by January 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international news agencies and official military statements indicating significant escalation
Story
Israel Warns Lebanon of Military Response if Hezbollah Ceasefire Fails
Dec 3, 2024, 10:37 AM
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has issued a stern warning to the Lebanese government, stating that if the ceasefire with Hezbollah collapses, Israel will no longer differentiate between Lebanon and Hezbollah. This statement implies that Israel would consider Lebanon as a whole responsible for any actions by Hezbollah, potentially leading to a broader military response. Katz emphasized that there would be no exemption for Lebanon in such a scenario, and Israel would respond strongly without distinguishing between the Lebanese military and Hezbollah forces.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Israeli strategic victory • 25%
Hezbollah strategic victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Cyber attack • 25%
Drone attack • 25%
Other • 25%
Ballistic missile attack • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Escalation into war • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
