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Outcome of Hezbollah-Israel conflict by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation into war • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Official announcements from involved parties or credible international news agencies
Story
Hezbollah Fires Rockets at Israel's Mount Dov, Breaking Ceasefire; Israel Responds
Dec 2, 2024, 03:25 PM
On Monday, Hezbollah launched two projectiles at Israeli military positions in the Mount Dov area, marking the first such attack since a ceasefire took effect on November 27, 2024. The Israeli military confirmed that the missiles, which landed in open areas causing no casualties, were fired from southern Lebanon by Hezbollah. Hezbollah claimed responsibility, stating the attack was a 'warning defensive response' to what it described as Israel's repeated violations of the ceasefire agreement. In response, Israeli forces conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including areas around the towns of Yaroun and Wadi Barghaz. The ceasefire, brokered last week, has been strained by ongoing sporadic fire along the border.
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Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hezbollah • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire mutually violated • 25%
Israeli strategic victory • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hezbollah strategic victory • 25%
Temporary suspension • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire is maintained without violations • 25%
Hezbollah retreats beyond Litani River • 25%
Diplomatic resolution achieved • 25%
Significant military confrontation occurs • 25%
Partial disarmament • 25%
Complete disarmament of Hezbollah • 25%
No significant disarmament • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Hezbollah weakens • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Partial compliance with ongoing tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Peaceful resolution with full compliance • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Mediation talks ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
New agreement • 25%
Ceasefire violated • 25%
