Market
Will Palestinians be allowed to return to northern Gaza by February 15, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from Israeli government or credible news sources
Story
Israel Blocks Palestinian Return to Northern Gaza Until Civilian Hostage Arbel Yehud Is Released Under Ceasefire Agreement
Jan 25, 2025, 11:08 AM
Israel has declared that it will not permit Palestinians to return to the northern Gaza Strip until Hamas releases Arbel Yehud, a civilian hostage who was expected to be freed on Saturday. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office stated that this decision aligns with the terms of a ceasefire agreement, which stipulates the release of civilian hostages before allowing movement back to northern areas. Earlier on the same day, Hamas released four female Israeli soldiers as part of the ongoing ceasefire deal, but failed to release Yehud, prompting Israel's stance. A Hamas official has since informed mediators that Yehud is alive and will be released next Saturday. Israel is currently in discussions with mediators to expedite Yehud's release, aiming to secure her freedom within the next two days.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
300,000 to 350,000 • 25%
Less than 300,000 • 25%
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350,001 to 400,000 • 25%
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After June 30, 2025 • 25%
By February 28, 2025 • 25%
By April 30, 2025 • 25%
By June 30, 2025 • 25%
February 1-7, 2025 • 25%
After February 15, 2025 • 25%
February 8-15, 2025 • 25%
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