Market
500,000 Palestinians return to northern Gaza by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from the Gaza government's office or major international news agencies
Story
300,000 Palestinians Return to Northern Gaza After 15-Month Displacement Amid Ceasefire
Jan 27, 2025, 10:19 PM
Thousands of displaced Palestinians have begun returning to northern Gaza for the first time in over a year, following Israel's withdrawal from the Netzarim corridor and the opening of roadblocks after Hamas agreed to release three Israeli hostages, including Arbel Yehud. The Gaza government's office reported that over 300,000 Palestinians have returned to the north of the enclave. Many traveled on foot along the coastal road or by boat, carrying their belongings. This development comes amid a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, allowing families separated during the 15-month conflict to reunite. Among those returning were journalist Mohammad Shaheen, who reunited with his children, and twin brothers who had been separated for over a year. While some expressed joy at the prospect of returning home, others faced the grim reality of destroyed residences and infrastructure in the war-torn region. The war had displaced about 650,000 Gazans who were forced to leave northern Gaza.
View original story
Similar markets
Less than 300,000 • 25%
300,000 to 350,000 • 25%
350,001 to 400,000 • 25%
More than 400,000 • 25%
51% to 75% • 25%
More than 75% • 25%
25% to 50% • 25%
Less than 25% • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
100,000 to 300,000 • 25%
More than 500,000 • 25%
300,001 to 500,000 • 25%
Less than 100,000 • 25%
After February 15, 2025 • 25%
February 8-15, 2025 • 25%
February 1-7, 2025 • 25%
January 26-31, 2025 • 25%