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How many displaced Palestinians will return to northern Gaza by February 28, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 300,000 • 25%
300,000 to 350,000 • 25%
350,001 to 400,000 • 25%
More than 400,000 • 25%
Reports from the Gaza government's media office and major news outlets
Story
300,000 Palestinians Return as Hamas Agrees to Release Hostages Yehud and Berger Before Friday
Jan 27, 2025, 03:01 PM
Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement, facilitated by Qatar, for the release of six Israeli hostages held by Hamas. Hostages including civilian Arbel Yehud, soldier Agam Berger, and another unnamed individual are set to be released before Friday, with three more hostages expected to be released on Saturday. In exchange, Israel has agreed to allow displaced Palestinians to return to their homes in northern Gaza. Israel has opened the Netzarim Corridor after withdrawing its forces, enabling tens of thousands of Palestinians to return. Many Palestinians have been displaced for over 15 months due to the conflict. According to the Gaza government's media office, more than 300,000 displaced Palestinians have returned to northern Gaza. Palestinian officials have hailed the return as a 'victory' and a 'historic moment', with celebrations and emotional reunions reported. The return is part of the ongoing ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
More than 500,000 • 25%
300,001 to 500,000 • 25%
100,000 to 300,000 • 25%
Less than 100,000 • 25%
More than 75% • 25%
Less than 25% • 25%
25% to 50% • 25%
51% to 75% • 25%
February 1-7, 2025 • 25%
January 26-31, 2025 • 25%
February 8-15, 2025 • 25%
After February 15, 2025 • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
