Market
What will be the international response to the ceasefire and hostage situation by February 28, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased international pressure on Hamas • 25%
Increased support for Israel's stance • 25%
Calls for independent mediation • 25%
Other international actions • 25%
Reports from international organizations or major news outlets
Story
Israel Blocks Palestinian Return to Northern Gaza Until Civilian Hostage Arbel Yehud Is Released Under Ceasefire Agreement
Jan 25, 2025, 11:08 AM
Israel has declared that it will not permit Palestinians to return to the northern Gaza Strip until Hamas releases Arbel Yehud, a civilian hostage who was expected to be freed on Saturday. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office stated that this decision aligns with the terms of a ceasefire agreement, which stipulates the release of civilian hostages before allowing movement back to northern areas. Earlier on the same day, Hamas released four female Israeli soldiers as part of the ongoing ceasefire deal, but failed to release Yehud, prompting Israel's stance. A Hamas official has since informed mediators that Yehud is alive and will be released next Saturday. Israel is currently in discussions with mediators to expedite Yehud's release, aiming to secure her freedom within the next two days.
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Similar markets
Support for mediation efforts • 25%
Condemnation of Hamas • 25%
Calls for increased sanctions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Criticism • 25%
Positive reinforcement • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Mixed responses • 25%
Call for immediate ceasefire • 25%
Condemnation of Israel • 25%
Condemnation of Hamas • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Support • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Mixed responses • 25%
International peacekeeping force deployed • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
UN sanctions imposed on Hamas • 25%
Sanctions imposed on Hamas • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Peacekeeping forces deployed • 25%
Sanctions imposed on Israel • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
Increased sanctions on Gaza • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Condemnation and diplomatic actions • 25%
Condemnation without action • 25%
Broad international support • 25%
Predominantly negative reactions • 25%
Little to no reaction • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Widespread support • 25%
Widespread condemnation • 25%
No official response • 25%
Positive response • 25%
Mixed response • 25%
Negative response • 25%
US issues critical response • 25%
UN supports and praises agreement • 25%
Mixed international reactions • 25%
EU supports but with caution • 25%