Market
Will Israel allow displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza by February 3, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from news agencies or official statements from the Israeli government
Story
Qatar Announces Agreement for Release of Arbel Yehud and Others, Palestinians to Return to Northern Gaza Under Ceasefire
Jan 26, 2025, 09:55 PM
Qatar's Foreign Ministry has announced that an agreement has been reached between Israel and Hamas, stipulating the release of hostages as part of the ceasefire agreement. Hamas will hand over Arbel Yehud and two other hostages before Friday, and three additional hostages on Saturday, in accordance with the ceasefire agreement. In exchange, Israel will permit displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza starting Monday morning.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Less than 300,000 • 25%
300,000 to 350,000 • 25%
350,001 to 400,000 • 25%
More than 400,000 • 25%
After June 30, 2025 • 25%
By June 30, 2025 • 25%
By April 30, 2025 • 25%
By February 28, 2025 • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
January 26-31, 2025 • 25%
After February 15, 2025 • 25%
February 8-15, 2025 • 25%
February 1-7, 2025 • 25%
Evacuation continues • 25%
No return due to safety concerns • 25%
Majority return safely • 25%
Partial return • 25%