Market
Will Israel allow displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza by February 5, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the Israeli government, news reports
Story
Qatar Brokers Deal: Arbel Yehud, Agam Berger to be Released Thursday, Palestinians Return via Netzarim Corridor
Jan 26, 2025, 10:07 PM
Qatar has announced a breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, facilitating the release of hostages and the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza. Under the agreement, Hamas will release civilian Arbel Yehud, soldier Agam Berger, and another hostage on Thursday, with three more hostages to be freed on Saturday. In exchange, Israel will allow displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza starting Monday morning via the Netzarim Corridor. This deal comes after a period of tension where Israel had delayed the return of Palestinians to the north due to the non-release of Arbel Yehud as initially scheduled. Hamas has also provided Israel with a list detailing the status of all hostages to be released during the first phase of the ceasefire agreement, and Israel will submit a list of 400 Palestinians arrested since Oct. 7, 2023, every Sunday. The agreement aims to address the displacement of around 650,000 Palestinians caused by the 15-month war.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Less than 300,000 • 25%
More than 400,000 • 25%
350,001 to 400,000 • 25%
300,000 to 350,000 • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
After June 30, 2025 • 25%
By February 28, 2025 • 25%
By April 30, 2025 • 25%
By June 30, 2025 • 25%
February 8-15, 2025 • 25%
January 26-31, 2025 • 25%
February 1-7, 2025 • 25%
After February 15, 2025 • 25%
Partial return • 25%
Majority return safely • 25%
No return due to safety concerns • 25%
Evacuation continues • 25%