Market
What will be the outcome of negotiations for Arbel Yehud's release by January 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Released by January 31 • 25%
Release delayed beyond January 31 • 25%
No release and negotiations fail • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Statements from Israeli government, Hamas, or mediators
Story
Israel Blocks Palestinian Return to Northern Gaza Until Civilian Hostage Arbel Yehud Is Released Under Ceasefire Agreement
Jan 25, 2025, 11:08 AM
Israel has declared that it will not permit Palestinians to return to the northern Gaza Strip until Hamas releases Arbel Yehud, a civilian hostage who was expected to be freed on Saturday. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office stated that this decision aligns with the terms of a ceasefire agreement, which stipulates the release of civilian hostages before allowing movement back to northern areas. Earlier on the same day, Hamas released four female Israeli soldiers as part of the ongoing ceasefire deal, but failed to release Yehud, prompting Israel's stance. A Hamas official has since informed mediators that Yehud is alive and will be released next Saturday. Israel is currently in discussions with mediators to expedite Yehud's release, aiming to secure her freedom within the next two days.
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Similar markets
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No further information • 25%
Released by February 2025 • 25%
Not released by February 2025 • 25%
Agreement collapses • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Proof of life provided but not released • 25%
Remains captive • 25%
Released • 25%
Status unknown • 25%
Hamas • 25%
No group claims responsibility • 25%
Other group • 25%
Palestinian Islamic Jihad • 25%
Agreement rejected • 25%
Agreement approved • 25%
No decision • 25%
Agreement modified • 25%
No change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Improved relations • 25%