Market
How many states will implement policies similar to Trump's gender policy by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
0-5 States • 25%
6-10 States • 25%
11-20 States • 25%
More than 20 States • 25%
State legislative records and credible news sources
Story
Trump to Recognize Only Two Genders, Remove Transgender from Military and Schools
Dec 23, 2024, 07:39 AM
President-elect Donald Trump announced that under his administration, "it will be the official policy of the United States government that there are only two genders: male and female." Speaking at an event in Arizona, Trump pledged to "stop the transgender lunacy" on his first day in office. He stated he would sign executive orders on day one to end practices he referred to as "child sexual mutilation," remove transgender individuals from the military, and eliminate transgender presence from elementary, middle, and high schools. Trump also emphasized plans to prevent men from participating in women's sports. His remarks indicate a significant policy shift regarding transgender rights and LGBTQ+ issues in the United States.
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Similar markets
6-10 States • 25%
More than 20 States • 25%
11-20 States • 25%
0-5 States • 25%
No action • 25%
Adopt similar policy • 25%
Reject policy • 25%
Legal challenge • 25%
More than 15 States • 25%
11-15 States • 25%
6-10 States • 25%
0-5 States • 25%
More than 15 States • 25%
11-15 States • 25%
6-10 States • 25%
0-5 States • 25%
Majority of states oppose or challenge • 25%
Majority of states adopt similar policies • 25%
Mixed responses • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Majority implement • 33%
Mixed response • 34%
Majority challenge • 33%
No states • 25%
10 to 20 states • 25%
More than 20 states • 25%
Fewer than 10 states • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Mixed responses • 25%
Majority opposition • 25%
Majority support • 25%
More than 15 states • 25%
0-5 states • 25%
6-10 states • 25%
11-15 states • 25%
0-5 states • 25%
11-15 states • 25%
More than 15 states • 25%
6-10 states • 25%
6-10 states • 25%
More than 10 states • 25%
1-5 states • 25%
0 states • 25%
