Market
How will states respond to Trump's transgender athlete policy by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Majority implement • 33%
Majority challenge • 33%
Mixed response • 34%
Official state government announcements and legal filings
Story
Trump Pledges Ban on Transgender Athletes in Women's Sports, House Passes Bill Awaiting Senate Vote
Jan 20, 2025, 10:12 AM
On the eve of his inauguration as the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump reiterated his commitment to implementing policies that would bar transgender athletes, particularly transgender women, from participating in women's sports. Speaking at a rally in Washington, Trump declared that this measure would take effect immediately, stating, "We will keep men out of women's sports. It's over." This stance aligns with broader Republican efforts to address transgender issues and follows the recent passage of a bill by the House of Representatives aimed at restricting transgender women's participation in collegiate sports. The bill, which defines sex as assigned at birth, passed with a vote tally of 218-206 and now awaits a Senate vote, where 60% approval is required for passage. Trump also indicated plans to issue executive orders targeting other transgender-related policies, including restrictions on military service and access to schools.
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Similar markets
No action • 25%
Adopt similar policy • 25%
Reject policy • 25%
Legal challenge • 25%
Majority of states oppose or challenge • 25%
Mixed responses • 25%
Majority of states adopt similar policies • 25%
No significant response • 25%
More than 20 States • 25%
11-20 States • 25%
0-5 States • 25%
6-10 States • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Support • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Neutral • 25%
No Response • 25%
11-15 States • 25%
6-10 States • 25%
More than 15 States • 25%
0-5 States • 25%
No Clear Opinion • 25%
Evenly Split • 25%
Majority Oppose • 25%
Majority Support • 25%
Majority support • 25%
Majority opposition • 25%
Mixed responses • 25%
No significant response • 25%
More than 20 States • 25%
0-5 States • 25%
6-10 States • 25%
11-20 States • 25%
Ban transgender military service • 25%
Remove transgender education • 25%
Both policies • 25%
Neither policy • 25%