Market
What will be TikTok's operational model in the U.S. by the end of January 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Operates with ByteDance • 25%
Operates independently • 25%
Banned • 25%
Other • 25%
Official company announcements or major news reports
Story
Trump Urges Supreme Court to Delay TikTok Ban Until January 19, Citing Negotiation Plans
Jan 3, 2025, 10:00 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has urged the U.S. Supreme Court to delay the enforcement of a law that would ban TikTok in the U.S. unless its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, divests from it by January 19. Trump's request comes as he argues that his incoming administration should have the opportunity to negotiate a resolution. The Biden administration, however, has asked the Supreme Court to reject Trump's request, emphasizing that the law targets national security risks posed by potential Chinese control over TikTok, not free speech. TikTok, in its filings, has argued against the ban, asserting that it infringes on the First Amendment rights of its 170 million American users and that the law stems from the company's refusal to censor certain viewpoints. Trump highlighted his popularity on TikTok, noting that his personal account has received 1.4 billion total views and averages 24 million views per post, while his campaign account has garnered 2.4 billion views with an average of 6 million views per post. Additionally, the @teamtrump account has received eight times more total views on TikTok than on Instagram. The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on January 10, with a decision expected before the law's effective date.
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Similar markets
TikTok banned • 25%
Operational under new ownership • 25%
Banned • 25%
Operational with restrictions • 25%
Operational without restrictions • 25%
TikTok operates with restrictions • 25%
TikTok operates without changes • 25%
TikTok sold and operates under new ownership • 25%
Continues operation without interruption • 25%
New ownership announced • 25%
Permanently banned • 25%
Temporarily suspended • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Resumes Operations • 25%
Partial Operations • 25%
Continues Ban • 25%
Operates independently • 25%
Continues with ByteDance • 25%
Ceases US operations • 25%
Acquired by a US company • 25%
Temporarily suspended • 33%
Continues operations • 33%
Permanently shut down • 33%
TikTok remains shut down in the U.S. • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok resumes operations under new ownership • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok U.S. operations • 25%
Facing Legal Challenges • 25%
Operational • 25%
Under New Ownership • 25%
Shutdown • 25%
Banned • 25%
Under new joint venture • 25%
Operations ceased • 25%
Sold to another company • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok divested to a U.S. company • 25%
TikTok remains banned • 25%
TikTok resumes operations • 25%
Fully operational • 25%
Partially restricted • 25%
Other status • 25%
Banned • 25%
Sold to another entity • 25%
Continues without restrictions • 25%
Continues with restrictions • 25%
Policy changes • 25%
Approval of joint venture • 25%
Legal settlement • 25%
No specific reason • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Other • 25%
TikTok sold to US company • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Only in U.S. • 25%
Banned in both • 25%
Only in Canada • 25%
Continues in both U.S. and Canada • 25%