Market
What change, if any, will occur in U.S. policy towards Iran by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military presence • 25%
Increased diplomatic engagement • 25%
Continuation of current policy • 25%
Complete policy overhaul • 25%
Official policy statements from the U.S. government or credible news agencies
Story
Trump Considers Airstrikes, Supplying Bunker-Busters to Israel to Halt Iran's Nuclear Program
Dec 13, 2024, 09:38 AM
President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering a range of options to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, including the possibility of preemptive airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities or transferring 'bunker-buster' bombs to Israel, according to multiple reports citing sources close to his transition team. Advisers to Trump are concerned that economic sanctions and diplomatic efforts are insufficient to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions and are evaluating more aggressive measures, including military action. The Wall Street Journal reported that the military-strike option is now under serious review, marking a potential shift from longstanding U.S. policy of using diplomacy and sanctions to deter Iran's nuclear program. Trump has also reportedly expressed concern to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Iran might achieve nuclear capability during his term. This development comes amid rising tensions over Iran's nuclear activities and regional behavior.
View original story
Similar markets
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Increased military posturing • 25%
Increased diplomatic engagement • 25%
Maintained status quo • 25%
Withdrawal from previous agreements • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Severed diplomatic ties • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Diplomatic Agreement • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Worsened Relations • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
Military Conflict • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severed diplomatic ties • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
Pursue nuclear weapons • 25%
Enhance nuclear energy use • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Successful hostage release • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%