Market
What will be the outcome of US-Russia negotiations on Ukraine's NATO membership by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukraine joins NATO • 25%
Ukraine remains non-NATO • 25%
New security arrangement • 25%
Stalemate/no agreement • 25%
Official announcements from US or Russian government
Story
Biden Assures Putin: No NATO for Ukraine Without Significant Changes, No Nuclear Weapons
Jan 17, 2025, 10:58 AM
U.S. President Joe Biden has revealed details of his discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, stating that he assured Putin that Ukraine would not join NATO without significant changes to the alliance system, and that no nuclear weapons would be placed in Ukraine. Biden's comments were made in the context of a conversation from 2021, where he addressed Putin's concerns about the potential deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Biden emphasized that the U.S. had removed all nuclear weapons from Ukraine and would not reintroduce them, nor would Ukraine become a part of NATO until its system undergoes significant changes.
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Ukraine agrees to neutrality • 25%
Ukraine remains aligned with NATO • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ukraine reduces military ties with NATO • 25%
Ukraine maintains current military ties with NATO • 25%
Ukraine increases military ties with NATO • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Membership delayed beyond 2025 • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Membership denied • 25%
Membership granted by 2025 • 25%
No significant change in the situation • 25%
Complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Partial withdrawal with territorial concessions • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Negotiates terms • 25%
Accepts Ukraine's NATO membership • 25%
Other stance • 25%
Continues opposition • 25%
Membership negotiations started • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
Membership rejected • 25%
Membership delayed • 25%
No change in Ukraine's status • 25%
Ukraine admitted to NATO • 25%
Ukraine offered a pathway to membership • 25%
NATO membership talks initiated • 25%
Rejected by Ukraine • 25%
Accepted by all parties • 25%
Rejected by Russia • 25%
No new proposal made • 25%