Market
Outcome of US-Russia negotiations on Ukraine's NATO military ties by the end of 2025
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukraine reduces military ties with NATO • 25%
Ukraine maintains current military ties with NATO • 25%
Ukraine increases military ties with NATO • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Official diplomatic agreements or statements from involved parties
Story
Putin to Demand Ukraine's NATO Exclusion, Neutrality, and Limited Army in Talks with Trump: Bloomberg
Jan 15, 2025, 06:00 PM
Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to demand that Ukraine never joins NATO and becomes a neutral state with a limited army in any upcoming negotiations with incoming US President Donald Trump, according to Bloomberg sources. Putin's conditions also include a drastic reduction of Ukraine's military ties with the NATO alliance. Russia is expected to insist that while NATO countries may continue to supply weapons to Ukraine, these should not be used against Russia or to recapture territories. The Kremlin aims to maintain at least de facto control over the nearly 20% of Ukrainian territory it currently holds, including Crimea, though it is open to some territorial swaps.
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New security arrangement • 25%
Ukraine joins NATO • 25%
Stalemate/no agreement • 25%
Ukraine remains non-NATO • 25%
Ukraine agrees to neutrality • 25%
Ukraine remains aligned with NATO • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No significant change in the situation • 25%
Complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine • 25%
Partial withdrawal with territorial concessions • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Membership granted by 2025 • 25%
Membership delayed beyond 2025 • 25%
Membership denied • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Ukraine abandons NATO ambitions • 25%
Ukraine continues NATO ambitions • 25%
Compromise reached • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Informal Understanding • 25%
Formal Agreement • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Successful peace agreement reached • 25%
No negotiations occur • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without resolution • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Significant Progress • 25%
Escalation • 25%
No Talks • 25%