Market
What will be the outcome of any new peace proposal involving Ukraine and NATO by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Accepted by all parties • 25%
Rejected by Russia • 25%
Rejected by Ukraine • 25%
No new proposal made • 25%
Official announcements from NATO, Ukrainian government, or major international news agencies
Story
Russia Rejects Trump’s Ukraine Ceasefire Proposal, Dismisses 20-Year NATO Membership Delay and Peacekeepers
Dec 29, 2024, 12:14 PM
Russia has firmly rejected former President Donald Trump's calls for a ceasefire in Ukraine, labeling the proposal as 'a path to nowhere.' This dismissal was reiterated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who also expressed dissatisfaction with Trump's suggestion to postpone Ukraine's NATO membership for 20 years and to introduce European and British peacekeepers in the region. Lavrov emphasized that Russia will not accept these terms, reaffirming the country's longstanding position against Ukraine's NATO accession, regardless of the timeframe. The rejection of Trump's proposals indicates ongoing tensions in the region and highlights the complexities surrounding potential negotiations.
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Increased military aid • 25%
Other • 25%
No major action • 25%
Deployment of troops • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
No change in Ukraine's status • 25%
Ukraine admitted to NATO • 25%
NATO membership talks initiated • 25%
Ukraine offered a pathway to membership • 25%
Ukraine joins NATO • 25%
Ukraine remains non-NATO • 25%
New security arrangement • 25%
Stalemate/no agreement • 25%
Ukraine remains sovereign • 25%
Ukraine splits into regions • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine becomes a Russian ally • 25%
Ukraine joins NATO • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ukraine remains neutral, no NATO membership • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ukraine agrees to neutrality • 25%
Ukraine remains aligned with NATO • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Accepted by Russia and Ukraine • 25%
Rejected by Ukraine • 25%
Rejected by Russia • 25%
No proposal made • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Territorial agreement • 25%
Prisoner exchange agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Other • 25%