Market
What will be the outcome of U.S.-Russia discussions on Ukraine and nuclear arms by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement on Ukraine conflict resolution • 25%
Agreement on nuclear arms reduction • 25%
Both agreements • 25%
No agreements • 25%
Official statements from both governments or major news outlets reporting on the outcomes
Story
Putin Ready to Discuss Ukraine and Nuclear Arms with Trump, Awaits U.S. Signals
Jan 24, 2025, 10:08 AM
Russian President Vladimir Putin is prepared to engage in dialogue with U.S. President Donald Trump, according to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. The Kremlin is awaiting signals from Washington to initiate this communication, indicating a readiness for a phone call between the two leaders. This comes after Trump expressed his desire to meet Putin as soon as possible to negotiate an end to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and to discuss nuclear arms reduction. Peskov emphasized that Putin is ready for such discussions, but stressed the need for clear signals from the U.S. before proceeding.
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No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Partial withdrawal with territorial concessions • 25%
Complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine • 25%
No significant change in the situation • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Comprehensive peace agreement • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
New agreement signed • 25%
Normalization achieved • 25%
New treaty signed • 25%
Improved relations without formal treaty • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Talks postponed indefinitely • 25%
Talks end with no agreement • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Negotiations stalled • 25%
Bilateral negotiations only • 25%
Multilateral talks including NATO • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Lasting peace agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Partial agreement, no territorial changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full peace agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
No Talks • 25%
Significant Progress • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Formal peace agreement • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Territorial agreement • 25%
Prisoner exchange agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%