Market
What will be the outcome of U.S. negotiations with Hamas regarding hostage release by January 20, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
All hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or credible news agencies
Story
Trump Warns Hamas: Release Hostages, Including Seven Americans, Before Inauguration or "All Hell Will Break Out"
Dec 16, 2024, 05:16 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has issued a stern warning to Hamas, stating that if the hostages held in Gaza, including seven American citizens, are not released by his inauguration on January 20, "all hell is going to break out" and "there will be hell to pay." After "a good conversation with Bibi" Netanyahu, Trump discussed what is coming and the current status of the hostages, emphasizing his commitment to securing their release. "There is a light shining over the world," he said, expressing hope for their return. He reiterated that failure to release the hostages before he takes office would result in severe consequences. "It's not going to be pleasant," Trump warned, implying that his administration would take decisive action if the situation is not resolved.
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Partial agreement with some hostages released • 25%
Successful ceasefire and all hostages released • 25%
Negotiations postponed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial release • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Hostages not released • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Military action initiated • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 34%
Hostages released • 33%
No agreement reached • 33%
New hostages taken • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Hostages confirmed deceased • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Transferred to another location • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Released • 25%
Gaza • 25%
