Market
What will be the outcome of U.S. diplomatic efforts regarding Greenland by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military presence • 25%
Formal acquisition negotiations • 25%
Economic agreements • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S., Danish, or Greenlandic governments
Story
U.S. Confirms No Military Increase in Greenland Before Trump's Jan. 20 Inauguration
Jan 9, 2025, 11:49 AM
The United States has no current plans to increase its military presence in Greenland, according to the U.S. Embassy in Copenhagen. This statement follows President-elect Donald Trump's renewed interest in acquiring the Arctic island, which he described as an 'absolute necessity' for U.S. control ahead of his Jan. 20 inauguration. Trump's comments sparked concern and surprise in Greenland, home to 57,000 people, and Copenhagen, with no ruling out of military or economic actions against Denmark to achieve this goal. The Pentagon also confirmed it has no plans to take Greenland by force, emphasizing ongoing national security concerns elsewhere. Greenland is crucial for the U.S. military, particularly for its ballistic missile early-warning system, with a permanent presence at the Pituffik air base. Denmark has expressed openness to dialogue with the U.S. to safeguard its Arctic interests amid increasing great power rivalry in the region, driven by melting ice and new sea lanes.
View original story
Similar markets
Denmark agrees to negotiations • 25%
Both reject negotiations • 25%
Greenland agrees to negotiations • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Greenland agrees to negotiations • 25%
No official outcome • 25%
Greenland rejects negotiations • 25%
Denmark intervenes • 25%
No significant change • 34%
Increased cooperation without purchase • 33%
Formal purchase proposal • 33%
Other diplomatic outcomes • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Formal purchase proposal • 25%
Tensions escalated • 25%
Other • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
Denmark rejects the demand • 25%
Denmark agrees to negotiations • 25%
No official response • 25%
Greenland is acquired by the US • 25%
Greenland remains under Danish control • 25%
Denmark agrees to lease parts of Greenland to the US • 25%
Proposal rejected • 25%
Negotiations initiated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Greenland joins the U.S. • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Denmark rejects offer • 25%
Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Denmark rejects proposal • 25%
U.S. purchases Greenland • 25%
Denmark retains control without negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
US acquires Greenland • 25%
Greenland acquisition rejected • 25%
U.S. withdraws interest • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Greenland acquisition successful • 25%
Other diplomatic agreement • 25%
Negotiation attempt but unsuccessful • 25%
No negotiation attempt • 25%
Successful negotiation for control • 25%