Market
What will be the diplomatic outcome of U.S. demand for Greenland by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Denmark agrees to negotiations • 25%
Denmark rejects the demand • 25%
Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Official statements from involved countries, United Nations, or news reports
Story
Trump Demands Greenland from Denmark for National Security, Citing Strategic Value Against China and Russia
Jan 7, 2025, 05:20 PM
President Donald Trump has stated that the United States needs Greenland for national security purposes, emphasizing its strategic value in countering threats from China and Russia. Trump questioned Denmark's legal right to Greenland, suggesting that if such a right exists, Denmark should relinquish it to protect the 'free world'. He also threatened to impose high tariffs on Denmark if they do not comply with his demands regarding Greenland.
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Both reject negotiations • 25%
Greenland agrees to negotiations • 25%
Denmark agrees to negotiations • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Formal acquisition negotiations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Economic agreements • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Formal purchase proposal • 25%
Other diplomatic outcomes • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Tensions escalated • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
No significant change • 34%
Increased cooperation without purchase • 33%
Formal purchase proposal • 33%
No official outcome • 25%
Greenland rejects negotiations • 25%
Greenland agrees to negotiations • 25%
Denmark intervenes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Proposal rejected • 25%
Negotiations initiated • 25%
Greenland is acquired by the US • 25%
Denmark agrees to lease parts of Greenland to the US • 25%
Greenland remains under Danish control • 25%
No official response • 25%
U.S. purchases Greenland • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
Denmark rejects proposal • 25%
No significant developments • 25%
Greenland holds referendum • 25%
U.S. imposes tariffs • 25%
Denmark agrees to negotiate • 25%
No talks initiated • 25%
Successful acquisition • 25%
Talks initiated but no acquisition • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Denmark retains control without negotiations • 25%
US acquires Greenland • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Denmark rejects offer • 25%
Greenland joins the U.S. • 25%