Market
What is the most likely U.S. action towards Greenland by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military presence • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic incentives • 25%
No action • 25%
Official announcements or policy changes from the U.S. government
Story
U.S. Confirms No Military Increase in Greenland Before Trump's Jan. 20 Inauguration
Jan 9, 2025, 11:49 AM
The United States has no current plans to increase its military presence in Greenland, according to the U.S. Embassy in Copenhagen. This statement follows President-elect Donald Trump's renewed interest in acquiring the Arctic island, which he described as an 'absolute necessity' for U.S. control ahead of his Jan. 20 inauguration. Trump's comments sparked concern and surprise in Greenland, home to 57,000 people, and Copenhagen, with no ruling out of military or economic actions against Denmark to achieve this goal. The Pentagon also confirmed it has no plans to take Greenland by force, emphasizing ongoing national security concerns elsewhere. Greenland is crucial for the U.S. military, particularly for its ballistic missile early-warning system, with a permanent presence at the Pituffik air base. Denmark has expressed openness to dialogue with the U.S. to safeguard its Arctic interests amid increasing great power rivalry in the region, driven by melting ice and new sea lanes.
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Diplomatic Agreement • 25%
Economic Coercion • 25%
Military Action • 25%
No Action • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic actions • 25%
Military actions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Interest officially dropped • 25%
Formal negotiations start • 25%
No significant developments • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
Greenland reaffirms sovereignty • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
Other • 25%
No change in status • 25%
Successful negotiation for control • 25%
No negotiation attempt • 25%
Negotiation attempt but unsuccessful • 25%
Other diplomatic agreement • 25%
Military presence increase • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic investments • 25%
No significant actions • 25%
Greenland becomes part of the U.S. • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Economic agreements without territorial change • 25%
Increased U.S. military presence • 25%
Military Action • 25%
No Action • 25%
Economic Coercion • 25%
Diplomatic Negotiation • 25%
Military coercion • 25%
Economic incentives • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No attempt made • 25%
Greenland is acquired by the US • 25%
Negotiations initiated • 25%
Proposal rejected • 25%
No official response • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Denmark agrees to lease parts of Greenland to the US • 25%
Greenland remains under Danish control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Denmark rejects offer • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Greenland joins the U.S. • 25%
Both reject negotiations • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Greenland agrees to negotiations • 25%
Denmark agrees to negotiations • 25%