Market
What will be the outcome of U.S. diplomatic efforts on Greenland by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Greenland agrees to negotiations • 25%
Greenland rejects negotiations • 25%
Denmark intervenes • 25%
No official outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the involved governments
Story
Trump Calls for U.S. Control of Greenland, Citing 'Absolute Necessity' for National Security; Greenland's PM Responds
Dec 23, 2024, 07:12 AM
President-elect Donald Trump has reiterated his desire for the United States to acquire Greenland, describing the ownership and control of the territory as an 'absolute necessity' for national security and freedom worldwide. In a statement, Trump emphasized that 'for purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.' This call to action revives discussions from his previous administration when he also expressed interest in purchasing the island, which is currently a self-governing territory of Denmark. Greenland's Prime Minister, Mute Egede, responded firmly, stating that 'Greenland is not up for sale' and reaffirmed the island's commitment to its sovereignty.
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Formal acquisition negotiations • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Economic agreements • 25%
Greenland agrees to negotiations • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Denmark agrees to negotiations • 25%
Both reject negotiations • 25%
Formal purchase proposal • 33%
Increased cooperation without purchase • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Increased military presence • 25%
Formal purchase proposal • 25%
Other diplomatic outcomes • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Negotiation attempt but unsuccessful • 25%
Other diplomatic agreement • 25%
No negotiation attempt • 25%
Successful negotiation for control • 25%
Other • 25%
Tensions escalated • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Denmark agrees to negotiations • 25%
Denmark rejects the demand • 25%
Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Third-party mediation • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
U.S.-Denmark agreement on Greenland • 25%
Denmark strengthens defense of Greenland • 25%
Proposal rejected • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No official response • 25%
Denmark agrees to lease parts of Greenland to the US • 25%
Greenland is acquired by the US • 25%
Negotiations initiated • 25%
Greenland remains under Danish control • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Greenland joins the U.S. • 25%
Denmark rejects offer • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Denmark rejects proposal • 25%
U.S. purchases Greenland • 25%
Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
Greenland acquisition rejected • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
U.S. withdraws interest • 25%
Greenland acquisition successful • 25%