Market
What will be the outcome of U.S.-Denmark negotiations on Greenland by September 30, 2025?
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Donald Trump•Greenland•Trump•Denmark•Charlie Kirk•United States•Danish•Mette Frederiksen•NATO•Arctic
Resolution / Starting Odds
U.S.-Denmark agreement on Greenland • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Denmark strengthens defense of Greenland • 25%
Third-party mediation • 25%
Official government announcements or credible news reports
Story
President-elect Trump Considers Military Action to Acquire Greenland
Jan 10, 2025, 06:36 AM
President-elect Donald Trump has reiterated his interest in acquiring Greenland, calling it an "absolute necessity" for U.S. national and economic security. In recent statements, Trump refused to rule out using military force to gain control of the island, which is an autonomous territory of Denmark. He has also suggested imposing high tariffs on Denmark if it resists U.S. interests in Greenland. Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr., along with Charlie Kirk, visited Greenland, claiming that locals expressed support for becoming part of the United States; however, Greenlandic officials have disputed these claims, describing the visit as "staged." Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has reached out to Trump to discuss the issue, emphasizing that Greenland is not for sale while acknowledging Denmark's neglect of Greenland's defense. The U.S. interest in Greenland stems from its strategic location and abundant natural resources, including rare earth minerals. The situation has raised tensions with Denmark, a NATO ally, and prompted discussions on national security implications and geopolitical dynamics in the Arctic region.
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Greenland sold to U.S. • 25%
No significant change • 25%
U.S. expands military presence • 25%
Denmark rejects U.S. proposal • 25%
No significant change • 25%
U.S. purchases Greenland • 25%
Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
Denmark rejects proposal • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Greenland independence • 25%
New cooperation agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Tensions escalated • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Enhanced security agreement • 25%
Increased U.S. military presence • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Denmark retains control without negotiations • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
US acquires Greenland • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No official outcome • 25%
Denmark intervenes • 25%
Greenland rejects negotiations • 25%
Greenland agrees to negotiations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Reduced U.S. presence • 25%
Denmark increases own military presence • 25%
Increased U.S. presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Formal acquisition negotiations • 25%
Economic agreements • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Both reject negotiations • 25%
Greenland agrees to negotiations • 25%
Denmark agrees to negotiations • 25%
Successful negotiation for control • 25%
Negotiation attempt but unsuccessful • 25%
Other diplomatic agreement • 25%
No negotiation attempt • 25%