Market
Outcome of U.S.-Denmark Negotiations on Greenland by 2025
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Enhanced security agreement • 25%
Increased U.S. military presence • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Danish and U.S. governments
Story
Denmark Proposes Enhanced Security, U.S. Military Presence in Greenland Amid Trump's Control Aspirations
Jan 11, 2025, 01:49 PM
Denmark has sent private messages to the team of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, expressing readiness to discuss enhancing security in Greenland or increasing the U.S. military presence on the island. The messages, reported by Axios, come in response to Trump's stated interest in securing control of Greenland, which he has described as an 'absolute necessity' for U.S. national security. Denmark aims to address Trump's security concerns without ceding control of the semi-autonomous territory. The Danish government has made it clear that Greenland is not for sale but is open to discussing other U.S. requests regarding the island. This move follows Trump's refusal to rule out military or economic measures, including tariffs against Denmark, to gain control of Greenland. Trump is set to take office on January 20, amid Greenland's ongoing aspirations for independence.
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U.S. expands military presence • 25%
Denmark rejects U.S. proposal • 25%
Greenland sold to U.S. • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Denmark strengthens defense of Greenland • 25%
Third-party mediation • 25%
U.S.-Denmark agreement on Greenland • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
U.S. purchases Greenland • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Denmark rejects proposal • 25%
Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New cooperation agreement • 25%
Greenland independence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Tensions escalated • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Denmark increases own military presence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Reduced U.S. presence • 25%
Increased U.S. presence • 25%
Joint security measures • 25%
No change in current status • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Increased U.S. military presence • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Other diplomatic outcomes • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Formal purchase proposal • 25%
Increased cooperation without purchase • 33%
Formal purchase proposal • 33%
No significant change • 34%
US acquires Greenland • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
Denmark retains control without negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%