Market
What will be the outcome of Denmark-U.S. negotiations on military presence in Greenland by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased U.S. presence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Reduced U.S. presence • 25%
Denmark increases own military presence • 25%
Official announcements or agreements from the Danish or U.S. government
Story
Denmark Proposes Increased U.S. Military Presence in Greenland After Private Messages to Trump Team
Jan 11, 2025, 01:14 PM
Denmark has sent private messages to the team of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, expressing readiness to discuss enhancing security in Greenland or increasing the U.S. military presence on the island, according to Axios, citing two sources with knowledge of the issue. This move comes in response to Trump's recent statements emphasizing the strategic importance of Greenland to U.S. national security and hinting at possible military or economic actions, including imposing tariffs on Denmark, to control the island. The Danish government has acknowledged its past neglect of Greenland's defense, and the international community is closely watching Greenland's strategic position.
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Denmark rejects proposal • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
U.S. purchases Greenland • 25%
New cooperation agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Greenland independence • 25%
Increased U.S. military presence • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No change in current status • 25%
Joint security measures • 25%
No official response • 25%
Agreement rejected • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Denmark strengthens defense of Greenland • 25%
U.S.-Denmark agreement on Greenland • 25%
Third-party mediation • 25%
Denmark rejects U.S. proposal • 25%
Greenland sold to U.S. • 25%
U.S. expands military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Denmark retains control without negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
US acquires Greenland • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Tensions escalated • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased U.S. military presence • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Enhanced security agreement • 25%
Decrease military presence • 25%
Maintain current presence • 25%
Withdraw from Greenland • 25%
Increase military presence • 25%