Market
What will be the outcome of Turkey's efforts to eliminate the YPG in Syria by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
YPG disbanded • 25%
YPG relocated • 25%
YPG remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from the Turkish government, Syrian government, or credible international news agencies
Story
Turkey Aims to Eliminate YPG in Syria, Pushes for New Administration
Dec 13, 2024, 07:31 PM
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has declared the elimination of the YPG (People's Protection Units) in Syria as a strategic priority for Turkey. Fidan emphasized that the YPG, which he associates with the PKK, must either disband or be eradicated. He stated that the PKK elements within the YPG must leave Syria, as the country aims to establish a new, unified administration. Fidan highlighted that the Assad regime had previously disregarded political processes proposed by Ankara for a solution in Syria. He also mentioned that Syria now has a sovereign national government that does not recognize the YPG or any other power and will reclaim its territory. The minister stressed that the safety of the Kurdish population must be ensured during this process.
View original story
Similar markets
Peaceful agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Military victory for Turkey • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
No significant change • 25%
YPG fully eliminated • 25%
YPG strengthens • 25%
Partial elimination • 25%
No success • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Partial reduction • 25%
No significant change • 25%
PKK/YPG gains strength • 25%
Complete elimination • 25%
Partial reduction of YPG presence • 25%
Complete eradication of YPG presence • 25%
Increased YPG presence • 25%
No significant change in YPG presence • 25%
None Eliminated • 25%
Increased Presence • 25%
All Eliminated • 25%
Some Eliminated • 25%
Significant reduction in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increase in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
No significant change in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
YPG increases territorial control • 25%
YPG disbands and surrenders arms • 25%
YPG maintains current stance • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial success with some areas controlled • 25%
Complete success with full control established • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Continued military engagement • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Other • 25%
Failure with loss of territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
PKK/YPG leadership leaves voluntarily • 25%
Military operation conducted • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
Significant reduction of PKK/YPG activities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased PKK/YPG activities • 25%
Successful elimination of PKK/YPG presence • 25%