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What will be the outcome of the U.S.-El Salvador Safe Third Country negotiations by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement signed • 25%
Agreement not signed • 25%
Agreement delayed • 25%
Agreement rejected • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. or El Salvador government, or reputable news outlets
Story
Trump Administration Negotiates Safe Third Country Asylum Deal with El Salvador to Deport Non-Salvadoran Migrants, Including Venezuelan Gang Members
Jan 26, 2025, 07:54 PM
The Trump administration is negotiating an asylum agreement with El Salvador that would establish a 'Safe Third Country' arrangement. This agreement would enable the U.S. to deport non-Salvadoran migrants to El Salvador, blocking them from requesting asylum in the U.S. Reports indicate that the plan may include the deportation of Venezuelan gang members. The discussions come amid challenges in deporting migrants to other countries, such as Mexico and Colombia, which have reportedly refused flights for deportations. Various sources, including CBS News, have confirmed the ongoing negotiations and the implications of the proposed agreement.
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Agreement reached • 33%
Discussions continue • 33%
Discussions abandoned • 33%
Agreement Signed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Negotiations Terminated • 25%
Negotiations Ongoing • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Agreement with El Salvador only • 33%
Agreement with both • 33%
No agreements • 33%
Agreement with Mexico only • 33%
Significant violations reported • 25%
Minor violations reported • 25%
No violations found • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Reduced cooperation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased cooperation • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Flights resume with conditions • 25%
Policy becomes stricter • 25%
Policy suspended • 25%
Policy remains unchanged • 25%
Policy becomes more lenient • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Economic sanctions imposed • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Policy change by U.S. • 25%
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Policy change by Mexico • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Extension for Venezuelans only • 25%
No further extensions • 25%
Extension for Salvadorans only • 25%
Further extension for both • 25%