Market
Will the U.S. deport non-Salvadoran migrants to El Salvador under the new agreement by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from U.S. immigration authorities or reputable news outlets confirming deportations
Story
Trump Administration Negotiates Safe Third Country Asylum Deal with El Salvador to Deport Non-Salvadoran Migrants, Including Venezuelan Gang Members
Jan 26, 2025, 07:54 PM
The Trump administration is negotiating an asylum agreement with El Salvador that would establish a 'Safe Third Country' arrangement. This agreement would enable the U.S. to deport non-Salvadoran migrants to El Salvador, blocking them from requesting asylum in the U.S. Reports indicate that the plan may include the deportation of Venezuelan gang members. The discussions come amid challenges in deporting migrants to other countries, such as Mexico and Colombia, which have reportedly refused flights for deportations. Various sources, including CBS News, have confirmed the ongoing negotiations and the implications of the proposed agreement.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Agreement with El Salvador only • 33%
No agreements • 33%
Agreement with both • 33%
Agreement with Mexico only • 33%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Discussions continue • 33%
Agreement reached • 33%
Discussions abandoned • 33%
Negotiations Terminated • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Agreement Signed • 25%
Negotiations Ongoing • 25%
Policy becomes more lenient • 25%
Policy remains unchanged • 25%
Policy becomes stricter • 25%
Policy suspended • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Flights resume with conditions • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement • 25%
