Market
What will be the outcome of U.S.-Venezuela deportation negotiations by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement reached • 25%
Economic sanctions imposed • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. or Venezuelan government, credible news reports
Story
Trump Warns Venezuela, El Salvador to Accept Deportees or Face Economic Retaliation
Dec 16, 2024, 05:23 PM
President Donald Trump has announced that countries like Venezuela will be compelled to accept the deportation of their citizens from the United States, or face severe economic retaliation. This statement comes as part of Trump's broader plan for mass deportations, which he discussed in response to questions about handling criminal gangs such as Tren de Aragua from Venezuela. Trump emphasized that all countries involved would comply, stating, 'They'll take them back. They're all taking them back. And if they don't, they'll be met very harshly economically.' This policy stance reflects Trump's approach to immigration enforcement and international relations, aiming to enforce deportation agreements through economic leverage. Additionally, El Salvador has indicated its willingness to take back gang members who illegally crossed into the U.S.
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Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Successful agreements • 25%
Partial agreements • 25%
No agreements • 25%
New elections announced • 25%
Other • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Mediation by international body • 25%
Escalation to economic sanctions • 25%
Resolution through diplomatic talks • 25%
No resolution or escalation • 25%
Border remains closed • 25%
Partial reopening • 25%
Border reopens • 25%
Other developments • 25%
Edmundo González becomes president • 25%
Nicolás Maduro remains president • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
Maduro is removed but stays in Venezuela • 25%
Maduro goes into exile • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreements • 33%
Agreement with both • 33%
Agreement with Mexico only • 33%
Agreement with El Salvador only • 33%
Increased consular support • 25%
Reduction in deportations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Bilateral agreements on migration • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Collective condemnation • 25%
Other response • 25%
Individual diplomatic actions • 25%
New elections announced • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
González Urrutia recognized as president • 25%