Market
Outcome of U.S.-Mexico immigration policy dispute by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Policy change by U.S. • 25%
Policy change by Mexico • 25%
Official announcements, bilateral agreements, news reports
Story
Mexico Blocks U.S. Military Deportation Flight, Disrupting Trump's Immigration Plans
Jan 24, 2025, 11:23 PM
Mexico denied a U.S. military plane carrying deported migrants permission to land on Thursday, temporarily hindering the Trump administration's plans to repatriate immigrants to the country, according to NBC News and multiple sources. The refused flight was one of several scheduled deportation flights; two other C-17 military transports, each carrying 80 deportees from Guatemala, departed from Texas and Arizona. The denied flight, intended to deport immigrants to Mexico, was grounded after Mexican authorities refused landing permission. The incident may signal potential tensions between the U.S. and Mexico over immigration policies.
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Similar markets
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased cooperation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reduced cooperation • 25%
Resolution with new agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Escalation to trade disputes • 25%
Continuation of current tensions • 25%
Increased restrictions • 25%
Strengthened cooperation • 25%
Maintained current stance • 25%
Other • 25%
Flights resume with conditions • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Resolution in favor of H-1B visas • 25%
No resolution reached • 25%
Shift in focus to other issues • 25%
Resolution against H-1B visas • 25%
Pathway to Citizenship • 25%
No Significant Changes • 25%
Increased Deportations • 25%
New Visa Restrictions • 25%
Severely damaged relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Strained relations • 25%
Reduction in deportations • 25%
Bilateral agreements on migration • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased consular support • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations fluctuate • 25%
Relations unchanged • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Policy upheld • 25%
Policy struck down • 25%
Policy modified • 25%
Pending resolution • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved Cooperation • 25%
Strained Relations • 25%