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Outcome of U.S.-El Salvador 'Safe Third Country' Negotiations by End of 2025
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Trump•El Salvador•Central American•Safe Third Country•Biden•Venezuelan•Tren de Aragua•Nayib Bukele•Marco Rubio•Latin America
Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement Signed • 25%
Negotiations Ongoing • 25%
Negotiations Terminated • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. or El Salvador government
Story
Trump Seeks 'Safe Third Country' Deal With El Salvador to Deport Non-Salvadoran Migrants, Including Tren de Aragua Members
Jan 27, 2025, 01:15 AM
The Trump administration is negotiating an asylum agreement with El Salvador's government that would allow the U.S. to deport non-Salvadoran migrants to the Central American country. Under the proposed 'Safe Third Country' agreement, migrants would be blocked from seeking asylum in the U.S. and instead instructed to apply for asylum in El Salvador. This deal aims to revive a similar agreement from Trump's first term, which was never implemented and was later terminated by the Biden administration. The plan includes the possibility of deporting suspected members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua to El Salvador. President Trump and El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele have discussed cooperation on stopping illegal immigration and addressing transnational gangs. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to visit El Salvador as part of a broader trip to Latin America to further discuss these matters.
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Agreement not signed • 25%
Agreement rejected • 25%
Agreement delayed • 25%
Agreement signed • 25%
Discussions abandoned • 33%
Discussions continue • 33%
Agreement reached • 33%
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No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
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Agreement with both • 33%
Agreement with Mexico only • 33%
No agreements • 33%
Agreement with El Salvador only • 33%
Other • 25%
Flights resume with conditions • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
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No talks initiated • 25%
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Agreement reached • 25%
Flights remain suspended • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, flights resume unilaterally • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Political opposition • 25%
Logistical issues • 25%
Legal challenges • 25%
Public backlash • 25%
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Policy change by Mexico • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Policy change by U.S. • 25%