Market
How will U.S. deportation policy towards Venezuela and El Salvador change by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Policy remains unchanged • 25%
Policy becomes stricter • 25%
Policy becomes more lenient • 25%
Policy suspended • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government, credible news reports
Story
Trump Warns Venezuela, El Salvador to Accept Deportees or Face Economic Retaliation
Dec 16, 2024, 05:23 PM
President Donald Trump has announced that countries like Venezuela will be compelled to accept the deportation of their citizens from the United States, or face severe economic retaliation. This statement comes as part of Trump's broader plan for mass deportations, which he discussed in response to questions about handling criminal gangs such as Tren de Aragua from Venezuela. Trump emphasized that all countries involved would comply, stating, 'They'll take them back. They're all taking them back. And if they don't, they'll be met very harshly economically.' This policy stance reflects Trump's approach to immigration enforcement and international relations, aiming to enforce deportation agreements through economic leverage. Additionally, El Salvador has indicated its willingness to take back gang members who illegally crossed into the U.S.
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No further extensions • 25%
Extension for Salvadorans only • 25%
Further extension for both • 25%
Extension for Venezuelans only • 25%
Other • 25%
Less stringent laws • 25%
More stringent laws • 25%
No change • 25%
Individual diplomatic actions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other response • 25%
Collective condemnation • 25%
Other • 25%
No change • 25%
Less restrictions • 25%
More restrictions • 25%
Increase slightly • 25%
No change • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Increase significantly • 25%
Improved conditions in home countries • 25%
International diplomatic considerations • 25%
Other • 25%
Domestic political pressure • 25%
Decreases • 33%
Increases • 33%
Remains the same • 34%
Not implemented • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Blocked by courts • 25%
Fully implemented • 25%
No change • 25%
Divided opinion • 25%
Decreased support • 25%
Increased support • 25%