Market
What leadership changes will occur in South Korea following the impeachment trial by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New President elected • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
President Yoon remains in office • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Official government announcements or major news outlets
Story
Arrested Ex-Defense Minister Drafted Martial Law with Curfew, President Yoon Ordered Its Removal Amid Impeachment
Dec 26, 2024, 02:14 AM
The legal team of former South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, who was arrested in connection with the December 3 martial law declaration, has revealed that he drafted the initial version of a martial law proclamation, which included a curfew for the public. However, President Yoon Suk Yeol ordered the removal of the curfew clause from the draft. This disclosure comes amidst an ongoing impeachment trial against President Yoon, centered on his brief declaration of martial law on December 3. Kim's lawyers have defended the martial law decree, arguing it was necessary to address anti-state elements threatening the country's democracy. Kim attempted suicide while in detention on December 11. The controversy surrounding the martial law declaration led to President Yoon's impeachment by parliament on December 14, with the outcome of his trial to be determined by the Constitutional Court.
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Similar markets
Acting President Stays • 25%
New Interim Leader Appointed • 25%
Early Elections Held • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
New candidate from Yoon's party • 25%
Choi Sang-mok • 25%
Candidate from opposition party • 25%
Other • 25%
Snap Election Called • 25%
Other Major Event • 25%
Constitutional Reform Proposed • 25%
New Prime Minister Appointed • 25%
New President Elected • 25%
Other Scenario • 25%
Interim President Appointed • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol remains President • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Martial law continues • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Acting President remains • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Interim President Appointed • 25%
New President Elected • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol Reinstated • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Other leadership changes • 25%
President Yoon steps down • 25%
Cabinet reshuffle • 25%
Yoon is arrested • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yoon remains in power • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
Yoon remains in power • 25%