Market
What will be the outcome of the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Hamas removed, war ends • 25%
Hamas remains, war continues • 25%
Hamas removed, war continues • 25%
Hamas remains, war ends • 25%
Official announcements from involved governments and international news agencies
Story
Biden Announces Second Phase of Gaza Ceasefire to Remove Hamas, End War Permanently
Jan 19, 2025, 04:23 PM
U.S. President Joe Biden announced that the second phase of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, set to begin on the 16th day, will aim to remove Hamas from power and ensure a permanent end to the war. This phase will also include negotiations for the release of Israeli soldiers. Biden highlighted that the ceasefire, which he attributes to a major success of his administration, has led to the release of three Israeli hostages, Doron Steinbrecher, Emily Damari, and Romi Gonen. The ceasefire agreement, initially proposed by Biden in May, has now come into effect, with humanitarian aid entering Gaza. The next phase of negotiations will be handled by the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump.
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Other outcome • 25%
Permanent peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire ends with resumed hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
Temporary extension of current ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire collapses, conflict resumes • 25%
Partial hostage return • 25%
Ceasefire not implemented • 25%
All hostages returned • 25%
No hostages returned • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Complete exchange as planned • 25%
Partial exchange • 25%
Exchange fails • 25%
Long-term ceasefire • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Short-term ceasefire • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major conflict • 25%
Negotiations continue beyond deadline • 25%
Agreement approved and implemented • 25%
Agreement approved but not implemented • 25%
Agreement not approved • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire commences successfully • 25%
Ceasefire agreement collapses • 25%
Partial implementation with issues • 25%
Ceasefire delayed but commences • 25%