Market
What will be the outcome of the ceasefire agreement negotiations between Israel and Hamas?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
60-day ceasefire agreed • 25%
Partial agreement with modifications • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Israeli or Palestinian authorities and reports from major news outlets
Story
Israel and Hamas Nearing 60-Day Ceasefire Deal with Hostage and Prisoner Exchange
Dec 18, 2024, 10:45 AM
Negotiations for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas are intensifying, with both parties and mediators expressing cautious optimism about reaching an agreement. A senior Israeli official indicated that while gaps remain in the negotiations, they are considered bridgeable. A proposed deal includes a 60-day ceasefire in exchange for the release of dozens of Israeli hostages and between 700 to 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. Hamas has reportedly made significant concessions, agreeing to release Israeli hostages who are sick, elderly, or female soldiers, and has dropped its demand for a complete end to the war and full Israeli withdrawal in the first phase of the deal. The Israeli delegation, including officials from Mossad, Shin Bet, and the IDF, is currently in Qatar for further discussions. CIA Director William Burns is also scheduled to meet with Qatari officials to help bridge the remaining gaps. Hamas has also agreed to the deportation of senior Palestinian prisoners to Turkey or Qatar, and possibly Iran, as part of the deal. The negotiations are in their final stages, with discussions focusing on the specifics of prisoner releases and the terms of the ceasefire.
View original story
Similar markets
Ceasefire collapsed, conflict resumed • 25%
Ceasefire successfully completed • 25%
Ceasefire ended early due to violations • 25%
Ceasefire extended beyond six weeks • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Extension of ceasefire • 25%
New negotiations • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire holds and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks but hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire holds but hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks and hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached and implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
Full Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
Partial Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Extended humanitarian aid • 25%
Progress towards peace talks • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Renewed hostilities • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Temporary peace with renewed conflict • 25%
Stalemate with no major changes • 25%
Successful long-term peace • 25%
Complete breakdown of ceasefire • 25%