Market
What will be the outcome of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire after six weeks?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Extension of ceasefire • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
New negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government, Hamas, or international mediators, and reports from major news outlets
Story
Blinken Confident Israel-Hamas Gaza Ceasefire Will Start Sunday, Mediated by U.S., Qatar, Egypt
Jan 16, 2025, 04:39 PM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed confidence that the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza will begin on Sunday as planned, despite a last-minute issue that delayed the Israeli government's approval of the deal. The ceasefire and hostage release agreement, mediated by the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt, aims to halt 15 months of conflict. Blinken noted that negotiators are addressing the final details, which he referred to as a 'loose end.' The deal includes a six-week initial ceasefire, the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, and the release of hostages by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
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Ceasefire collapsed, conflict resumed • 25%
Ceasefire extended beyond six weeks • 25%
Ceasefire ended early due to violations • 25%
Ceasefire successfully completed • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with full-scale conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial agreement with modifications • 25%
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Partial success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire breaks and hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire holds but hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire holds and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks but hostages released • 25%