Market
What will be the outcome of Syrian protests against Iranian influence by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased Iranian influence • 25%
Decreased Iranian influence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Complete Iranian withdrawal • 25%
Analysis of political changes reported by major news outlets such as Al Jazeera or The Guardian
Story
Syrians Defy Iranian Influence, Tear Down Soleimani and Nasrallah Banner
Dec 8, 2024, 05:45 AM
Syrian residents have torn down a banner featuring images of Qasem Soleimani, the late commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, and Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, outside the Iranian embassy in Damascus. This act of defiance comes amid reports of armed protesters entering Damascus and rumors of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's departure from the country. The incident symbolizes a growing discontent with Iranian influence in Syria, as evidenced by the public's reaction to the displayed images.
View original story
Similar markets
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Partition of Syria • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Increased Iranian influence • 25%
Decreased Iranian influence • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Iran mediates a peace agreement • 25%
Iran withdraws support from Syria • 25%
Iran maintains current involvement • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Government gains significant ground • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Rebels gain significant ground • 25%
International intervention leads to new governance • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Rebels establish new government • 25%
Stalemate situation • 25%
International intervention leads to resolution • 25%
Assad Regime remains in power • 25%
Rebel forces take control • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Regime Change • 25%
Increased support for Assad regime • 25%
Other political shifts • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Increased opposition to Assad regime • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Maintained status quo • 25%
Iran increases presence • 25%
Iran reduces presence • 25%
Diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Iran maintains current stance • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Regime maintains current positions • 25%
Opposition gains significant ground • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Syrian army regains significant territory • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Rebels gain more territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%