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What will be the outcome of Syrian opposition's offensive by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Opposition gains significant ground • 25%
Regime maintains current positions • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from major news agencies such as Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera
Story
Syrian Opposition Informed Turkey of Offensive Plans Against Assad Six Months Ago
Dec 9, 2024, 05:17 AM
The Syrian opposition informed Turkey of its plans to launch a major offensive against President Bashar Assad's regime six months ago, according to Reuters, citing two sources. The opposition felt they had received tacit approval from Ankara. This move was seen as an attempt to capitalize on the ongoing civil war, which has lasted for 13 years, to weaken Assad's grip on power, especially after Turkey's efforts to engage with Assad had failed.
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Opposition captures Damascus • 25%
Opposition fails to capture any major cities • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%
Opposition captures other major cities but not Damascus • 25%
Full control and recognized government • 25%
Regime reestablished • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Partial control with ongoing conflict • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Partition of Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
Rebels make significant gains but not Damascus • 25%
Rebels gain control of Damascus • 25%
Government regains lost ground • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Government gains significant ground • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Rebels gain significant ground • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Regime Change • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Assad retains control • 25%
Rebels control Damascus • 25%
Assad regains control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Rebels gain significant territory • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Opposition takes control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Assad Regime retains control • 25%
Partial reconciliation achieved • 25%
Full reconciliation achieved • 25%
Increased conflict • 25%
No reconciliation achieved • 25%
Assad Regime remains in power • 25%
Rebel forces take control • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
International intervention leads to new governance • 25%
International intervention leads to resolution • 25%
Stalemate situation • 25%
Rebels establish new government • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Political agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%