Market
Outcome of Syrian Conflict by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Regime Change • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from credible international news agencies or conflict monitoring organizations
Story
Khamenei Warns of Neglected Threats in Syria After Assad's Flight
Dec 11, 2024, 09:51 AM
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has publicly addressed the recent developments in Syria for the first time since President Bashar Al-Assad fled the country. Speaking in Tehran, Khamenei revealed that Iran's intelligence services had warned Syrian officials about potential threats, specifically an offensive by HTS and SNA, as early as September. Despite these warnings, Khamenei noted that the Assad government had neglected the intelligence, leading to the current situation. He emphasized the lesson from the Syrian incident is to remain vigilant against enemies. Iran's security agencies had provided assistance to Syria, but it remains unclear whether these reports reached the highest levels of Syrian leadership.
View original story
Similar markets
Government gains significant ground • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Rebels gain significant ground • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Partition of Syria • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Stalemate/Status Quo • 25%
Assad Regime Victory • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Rebel Victory • 25%
Government retains power • 25%
Opposition victory • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Complete Rebel Victory • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ongoing civil conflict • 25%
International intervention • 25%
New government established • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Significant gains by opposition • 25%
Government regains full control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Government Regains Control • 25%
Partial Rebel Control • 25%
Assad Regime remains in power • 25%
Rebel forces take control • 25%
International intervention leads to new governance • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
International intervention leads to resolution • 25%
Stalemate situation • 25%
Rebels establish new government • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Regime maintains current positions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Opposition gains significant ground • 25%
Assad is exiled • 25%
Assad remains in power • 25%
Assad steps down voluntarily • 25%
Assad is overthrown • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased foreign intervention • 25%
New government formation • 25%
Increase in terrorist activity • 25%
Assad regime remains in power • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ongoing conflict with no clear resolution • 25%
New government established • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Increased support for Assad regime • 25%
Increased opposition to Assad regime • 25%
Other political shifts • 25%
Government retains control with no significant changes • 25%
Opposition advances into Damascus • 25%
Other significant developments • 25%
Peace negotiations commence • 25%
New government formed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Prolonged conflict • 25%