Market
Release of Arbel Yehud by January 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from Israeli or Hamas representatives or credible news sources
Story
Hamas Accuses Israel of Delaying Ceasefire by Blocking Netzarim Corridor, Awaiting Arbel Yehud's Release
Jan 25, 2025, 03:31 PM
Hamas has accused Israel of delaying the implementation of a ceasefire agreement by continuing to close Al-Rashid Street and the Netzarim Corridor, preventing displaced Palestinians from returning to northern Gaza. The group holds Israel responsible for any disruptions in the agreement's execution and warns of potential consequences on subsequent stages of the deal. According to Hamas, Israel's actions are in violation of the terms agreed upon, which included the withdrawal of Israeli forces and the return of displaced individuals to their homes. Israel has stated it will not open the Netzarim Corridor until the release of civilian hostage Arbel Yehud, which was expected to occur but did not. Preparations are reportedly underway to accommodate the displaced people returning to the northern Gaza Strip, with their return expected to commence tomorrow.
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Release delayed beyond January 31 • 25%
No release and negotiations fail • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Released by January 31 • 25%
Other group • 25%
Palestinian Islamic Jihad • 25%
Hamas • 25%
No group claims responsibility • 25%
Released by February 2025 • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No further information • 25%
Not released by February 2025 • 25%
Agreement collapses • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Status unknown • 25%
Released • 25%
Remains captive • 25%
Proof of life provided but not released • 25%