Market
Will Arbel Yehud be released by January 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the Israeli government or verified news reports
Story
Islamic Jihad Releases Video of Hostage Arbel Yehud Urging Netanyahu and Trump to Honor Agreement
Jan 27, 2025, 06:44 PM
Palestinian Islamic Jihad has released a propaganda video of Israeli hostage Arbel Yehud, filmed on January 25, in which she addresses her family, says 'I am fine and hope to return to you soon,' and urges Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump to adhere to the agreement so that all hostages can go home. Yehud is expected to be released on Thursday as part of an agreement with Israel. Her delayed release previously threatened to derail the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Israeli officials confirm that an agreement has been reached regarding her release, while the Prime Minister's office states that talks are ongoing.
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Similar markets
Release delayed beyond January 31 • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Released by January 31 • 25%
No release and negotiations fail • 25%
Other group • 25%
No group claims responsibility • 25%
Hamas • 25%
Palestinian Islamic Jihad • 25%
Released by February 2025 • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Not released by February 2025 • 25%
No further information • 25%
Still in captivity • 25%
Unknown status • 25%
Released • 25%
Rescue operation conducted • 25%
