Market
What will be the outcome of the agreement regarding Arbel Yehud and other hostages by February 28, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Agreement collapses • 25%
Official statements from Israeli or Palestinian authorities, or verified news reports
Story
Islamic Jihad Releases Video of Hostage Arbel Yehud Urging Netanyahu and Trump to Honor Agreement
Jan 27, 2025, 06:44 PM
Palestinian Islamic Jihad has released a propaganda video of Israeli hostage Arbel Yehud, filmed on January 25, in which she addresses her family, says 'I am fine and hope to return to you soon,' and urges Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump to adhere to the agreement so that all hostages can go home. Yehud is expected to be released on Thursday as part of an agreement with Israel. Her delayed release previously threatened to derail the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Israeli officials confirm that an agreement has been reached regarding her release, while the Prime Minister's office states that talks are ongoing.
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Similar markets
No release and negotiations fail • 25%
Released by January 31 • 25%
Release delayed beyond January 31 • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status unknown • 25%
Remains captive • 25%
Released • 25%
Proof of life provided but not released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No further information • 25%
Released by February 2025 • 25%
Not released by February 2025 • 25%
Agreement modified • 25%
Agreement approved • 25%
No decision • 25%
Agreement rejected • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Hostages released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Hostage killed • 25%
Hostage remains in captivity • 25%
Hostage released • 25%
Hostage escapes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Hostage deal reached • 25%
Hostages released without a formal deal • 25%