Market
What will be the resolution of the Ukraine conflict by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Conflict ends with peace agreement • 25%
Conflict continues at current levels • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Reports and statements from international organizations and governments
Story
Trump Seeks 5% NATO Defense Spending Target, May Settle for 3.5%; Will Continue Ukraine Aid
Dec 20, 2024, 05:48 PM
President-elect Donald Trump intends to demand that NATO member states increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP, but may settle for 3.5%, according to reports citing discussions with European officials. Currently, only 23 of the alliance's 32 members meet the existing 2% spending target. Despite his previous stance on Ukraine, Trump's team has communicated that the new administration plans to continue providing military aid to Ukraine. Trump believes that Ukraine should not be granted NATO membership and seeks an immediate end to the conflict.
View original story
Similar markets
Ceasefire • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Formal ceasefire • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Full peace agreement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Peace Agreement Signed • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Full withdrawal of Russian forces • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace agreement with security guarantees • 25%
Peace agreement without security guarantees • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Full peace agreement • 25%
Conflict ongoing • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Conflict continues • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire declared • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Ukraine regains territories • 25%
Russia gains significant control • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Significant territorial changes • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%