Market
What will be the outcome of Mozambique's political unrest following the disputed election by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Frelimo retains power • 25%
Opposition gains power • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
Other political outcome • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official government announcements
Story
Over 1,500 Prisoners Escape in Mozambique, Causing 33 Deaths and 15 Injuries; 150 Recaptured
Dec 25, 2024, 08:46 PM
More than 1,534 prisoners escaped from a high-security prison in Maputo, Mozambique, amid ongoing protests over disputed election results. The escape occurred on Christmas Day, following the third day of unrest triggered by the confirmation of the ruling Frelimo party's victory in the recent elections. The prison break resulted in at least 33 deaths and 15 injuries during clashes with prison staff. National police chief Bernardino Rafael reported that 150 of the escapees have been recaptured, including 29 terrorists. The unrest in Mozambique has led to a total of at least 150 deaths since the announcement of the election results, with reports of violence and vandalism across the country.
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Frelimo retains power • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Opposition declared winner • 25%
Frelimo confirmed as winner • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Government Concessions • 25%
Opposition Gains Power • 25%
Continued Unrest • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Official condemnation • 25%
Mediation initiated • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Sanctions Imposed • 25%
No Major Action • 25%
Humanitarian Aid • 25%
Diplomatic Talks • 25%
Stable with minor unrest • 25%
Unstable with significant protests • 25%
Stable with resolution of disputes • 25%
Escalating into crisis • 25%
Other response • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Mediation efforts initiated • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No significant participation • 25%
Minimal participation and little impact • 25%
Moderate participation with some impact • 25%
Widespread participation and significant impact • 25%