Market
What will be the international response to Mozambique's political crisis by May 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Mediation efforts initiated • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Other response • 25%
Statements from international bodies like the UN, AU, or regional organizations
Story
Over 1,534 Prisoners Escape Maputo Jail Amid Protests, 33 Dead and 15 Injured
Dec 25, 2024, 09:37 PM
On December 25, 2024, more than 1,500 prisoners escaped from a maximum-security prison in Maputo, Mozambique, amid ongoing protests linked to the disputed results of the recent presidential election. The unrest, which has entered its third day, followed the confirmation of the ruling Frelimo party's victory, a result that has been met with accusations of fraud from opposition groups. The prison break occurred during a riot that resulted in at least 33 deaths and 15 injuries, according to local police. The escapees took advantage of the holiday season, when fewer guards were on duty. As of now, approximately 150 of the escapees have been recaptured. The situation has raised concerns over public safety and the response of law enforcement amid the political turmoil in the country.
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No Major Action • 25%
Diplomatic Talks • 25%
Humanitarian Aid • 25%
Sanctions Imposed • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Mediation initiated • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Official condemnation • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Frelimo retains power • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
Other political outcome • 25%
Opposition gains power • 25%
Government Concessions • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Opposition Gains Power • 25%
Continued Unrest • 25%
International mediation • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Government concessions • 25%
Continued unrest without resolution • 25%
Stable with minor unrest • 25%
Escalating into crisis • 25%
Stable with resolution of disputes • 25%
Unstable with significant protests • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Opposition declared winner • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Frelimo confirmed as winner • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%