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What will be the international response to Mozambique's election unrest by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Mediation initiated • 25%
Official condemnation • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Statements from international organizations like the UN or African Union
Story
1,534 Inmates Escape Mozambique's Machava Prison; 33 Dead Amid Election Unrest
Dec 26, 2024, 12:19 AM
On December 25, more than 1,500 prisoners, specifically 1,534 inmates, escaped from the high-security Machava prison near Mozambique's capital, Maputo, amid ongoing protests over disputed presidential election results. The prison break occurred during the third day of unrest triggered by the controversial confirmation of the long-ruling Frelimo party as the winner of recent elections, which the opposition has denounced as fraudulent. According to Mozambique's police general commander, Bernardino Rafael, at least 33 people were killed and 15 injured during riots at the prison. Police have recaptured around 150 escapees so far. The mass escape has raised concerns about public safety, with authorities warning of a potential increase in crime in the capital.
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Other response • 25%
Mediation efforts initiated • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Sanctions Imposed • 25%
No Major Action • 25%
Humanitarian Aid • 25%
Diplomatic Talks • 25%
Frelimo retains power • 25%
Other political outcome • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
Opposition gains power • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Frelimo retains power • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Continued Unrest • 25%
Government Concessions • 25%
Opposition Gains Power • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Stable with minor unrest • 25%
Unstable with significant protests • 25%
Stable with resolution of disputes • 25%
Escalating into crisis • 25%
Government concessions • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
International mediation • 25%
Continued unrest without resolution • 25%