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What will be the nature of Israel-Lebanon relations by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Peaceful relations • 25%
Tense but stable relations • 25%
Escalating tensions • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Official diplomatic statements and reports from credible international news agencies
Story
IDF Begins Withdrawal from Khiam, Lebanon, Under Ceasefire Agreement with Hezbollah Effective November 27, 2024
Dec 12, 2024, 03:49 AM
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have commenced their withdrawal from the Khiam area in southern Lebanon as part of a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah, which took effect on November 27, 2024. This withdrawal marks the first phase of the agreement, with the Lebanese Army deploying units in five locations around Khiam to replace Israeli forces. The U.S. military has confirmed this initial withdrawal, emphasizing the transition of control from Israeli to Lebanese forces in the region. The ceasefire agreement aims to stabilize the area following ongoing tensions and violations by both parties.
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No significant change • 25%
Improved relations with Syria • 25%
Improved relations with both • 25%
Improved relations with Israel • 25%
Relations remain the same • 25%
Relations fluctuate • 25%
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Joint humanitarian initiative • 25%
Agreement on ceasefire • 25%
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Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
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No change • 25%
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Increased tensions or conflict • 25%
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Ceasefire Extended • 25%
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Ceasefire Implemented • 25%
Ceasefire Collapsed • 25%
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Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Ceasefire collapses, Israel initiates conflict • 25%
Ceasefire collapses, no further conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire collapses, Hezbollah initiates conflict • 25%
Ceasefire Breached • 25%
Ceasefire Maintained • 25%
Ceasefire Extended • 25%
Ceasefire Ended with Agreement • 25%