Market
What will be the status of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire collapses, no further conflict • 25%
Ceasefire collapses, Israel initiates conflict • 25%
Ceasefire collapses, Hezbollah initiates conflict • 25%
Reports from major news outlets such as BBC, Reuters, or Al Jazeera detailing the status of the ceasefire.
Story
Israel to Treat Lebanon and Hezbollah as One if Ceasefire Collapses
Dec 3, 2024, 10:45 AM
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has issued a stern warning to Lebanon, stating that if the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah collapses, Israel will no longer differentiate between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah. Katz emphasized that there would be no tolerance for Lebanon in such a scenario, and Israel would respond forcefully, treating Hezbollah and Lebanon as one entity. He urged the Lebanese army to enforce the ceasefire and keep Hezbollah away from the Litani River, warning that if war resumes, Israel would strike harder and deeper into Lebanon, including targeting Hezbollah's stronghold in Da'ahiya and Beirut.
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Ceasefire Maintained • 25%
Ceasefire Breached • 25%
Ceasefire Extended • 25%
Ceasefire Ended with Agreement • 25%
Partially maintained • 25%
Dissolved • 25%
Violated • 25%
Fully maintained • 25%
Fully intact • 25%
Broken • 25%
Significantly violated • 25%
Partially violated • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire violated • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
New agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peaceful resolution with full compliance • 25%
Partial compliance with ongoing tensions • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire mutually violated • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hezbollah • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Temporary suspension • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Ceasefire partially violated • 25%
Ceasefire broken, minor conflicts • 25%
Ceasefire broken, major conflicts • 25%
New peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire remains intact • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire fully violated • 25%
